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5 April 2020, Sunday, 08:29 (Hong Kong)

N.Vavilov: Is the epidemic a hidden coup in China?

"The epidemic as a hidden coup in China" Video 2020/29/01


Nikolay Vavilov, a famous Russian expert on China and specialist on Chinese domestic politics.

TV Host: Nikolay, these days the entire global mass media is literally intently covering the coronavirus epidemic, which began spreading in the Chinese city of Wuhan. You were in Wuhan, you know the authorities in Wuhan, you are also one of the biggest experts on China in Russia, could you talk about what is really happening in China?

Nikolay Vavilov: I’ll start first by touching on the recent, unexpected political events in Russia. In Russia, the most important news is the resignation of the government of the former president of Russia, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who had close relations with the U.S. Democratic Party and in particular with President Barack Obama.

I’m starting from these events because nobody has looked at the virus problem from this perspective. Today in China, the political situation is extremely aggravated. In March this year, a special session of the Chinese parliament, which consists of regional leaders of China, will be held. Now there is a rotation of all regional authorities in China - all mayors, governors, all party leaders of the Communist Party, and in March there will be a session of the entire Chinese parliament, after all the changes have been finalized.

And in this light, the virus and the epidemic are of a completely different nature. The epidemic and actions of the authorities receive a different political tint. There are no conspiracy theories here, it’s simply an open policy.
I am a professional Sinologist. I have been working in China for 20 years, of which 10 years from 2006 to 2016 I lived in the epicenter of epidemics - Hong Kong and Guangdong, and even got sick: sneezed, coughed, wore a mask, took Chinese pills, but as you can see, I am alive and well.

However, what is happening in China now - the city of Wuhan is closed, which is a river, air, road, and rail hub. As a result, transportation in the whole country is down. Winter transportation fell by 40%. Wuhan is China’s largest transportation hub, comparable to Moscow in Russia. What would happen now if we closed Moscow just because 100 people were sneezing? We see what a setback it is to the country's transport system. The authorities' measures are not proportional with the scale of the threat.

Indeed, the virus is spreading faster than during the ordinary flu. However, the number of deaths in China is comparable to the number of people who have recovered, but the press mainly disseminates data on fatalities, which causes a panic.

We see Wuhan is closed, Huanggang is closed, Hubei province is almost completely closed, and the cities of Suzhou and Wenzhou are closing and prolonging their holidays.

The Bejing Transport Committee actually closes road transport, the head of the central government - the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, prohibits tourists from traveling abroad.

The series of measures taken by a number of local and central authorities looks insane, panicky and disproportional to the scale of the threats. Although there is an epidemic itself, it’s a regular occurrence for China.

We must understand that epidemics occur in China annually. Right now it’s the New Year holiday period according to the Chinese lunar new year. People are leaving home in large numbers for the holidays, gathering at train stations. We must not forget that China is a country of labor migrants. In Wuhan alone, 5 million out of a total of 11 million people are labor migrants from neighboring provinces and from Hubei province itself, whose population is 59 million people.

People just get sick. Winter epidemics are an ordinary situation for China, and it is highly inefficient to close cities and the rationale for such behavior from regional authorities is unclear.

Today, for China, the main problem is that people, including 200 million migrants, will not go to work, schoolchildren will not go to school, students will not go to university, and normal life will be interrupted.

As we begin to study the problem, it begs the question of who are the officials who made such inappropriate decisions? The mayor of Wuhan, the mayor of Huanggang, the mayor and party boss of Suzhou, the Deputy Minister of Culture in charge of tourism, the head of the Beijing Transport Committee are all products of the Komsomol organization, the Russian word is KOMSOMOL. The China Communist Youth Union, an alternative socialist organization of China, more liberal, and has always had close ties with the Democratic parties in the United States, and in Russia always had close ties with Trotsky and Trotskyism.

After all, the current socio-political situation in China is structurally reminiscent of the events in 1989 on Tiananmen Square, when students led by the Komsomol first took to the streets in the provinces on the Yangtze River, then it spread to Shanghai and then to Beijing and led to tragic political events in China, specifically the military crackdown on student liberal protestors.

All the main players who have assumed roles in “fighting the virus” are all former high-ranking leaders in the regional Komsomol organizations.

Its noteworthy that in China, the Komsomol League was created simultaneously with the Communist Party and was at one time more influential than the Communist Party. It is an alternative socialist party - in fact, similar to the Democratic Party in the United States.

The current leaders of the Komsomol are Prime Minister Li Keqiang, who was the head of Komsomol. Hu Chunhua, the Vice Premier responsible for the fight against epidemics is also the head of the Komsomol and a native of Hubei. He was called the successor to Xi Jinping before China adopted Constitutional amendments in 2018. At present, Xi Jinping no longer needs successors. He can rule forever.

These actions could be a premature reaction to a possible impeachment of Trump in the United States. In Russia and China, they are watching these events with alarm. After all, Trump dealt a big blow to the Democratic Party and to the American globalists who destroyed the American economy, which left it to the Chinese manufacturers and infrastructure corporations.

And this situation resembles the situation in Russia. Russia and China may synchronize their actions. There was supposed to be a parliamentary session in China in March, but members of the parliament, which is 70% regional staff, have now suspended this rotation. And Li Keqiang’s possible future rise to power is interrupted by the current virus. Perhaps the March session of parliament will not be able to convene and will be postponed.

An important detail is that on January 6, the spread of information about the virus began. It was called a "mysterious disease" by the New York Times.

But what is the background of all this? On January 2nd, the top Taiwanese General was killed. On January 3, the head of the General Staff of Iran Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike. Meanwhile, the Head of Kurdish intelligence Metin Arsalan was also killed on January 3rd by Turkey. The international background of these events is extremely intense.

Directed destabilization has its own rationale and we see this rationale in the actions of the main actors in the virus blockade, but at the same time, we should not be paranoid about the virus. All this happens against the background of the usual winter flu epidemic in China. The United States also has such epidemics. In 2018, 80,000 people died from the flu, but nobody blocked New York or San Francisco.

But the measures that are being taken in China are obviously ineffective and they occur without coordination with the central authorities and it is the central authorities who are most destabilizing the situation in the country.

Today, the rotation of the elites in China was interrupted. Wuhan's party secretary Ma Guoqiang was removed from the post of Head of the Local Legislative assembly. He should have been removed from office, but he was not removed due to the blockade of Wuhan.

Are there any forces that oppose the Chinese Gorbachev?

Yes, there is such a “Party”. It’s the People’s Liberation Army of China, but this is not an economic or social body. It is a military body and, if it suppresses the opposition, it will resemble the anarchy and chaos of the Cultural Revolution in China.

By the way, Wuhan is the only city that the army took during the Cultural Revolution. Wuhan is also the city in which the Wuchang Uprising began, essentially the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty. Wuhan is extremely revolutionary. It is surprising. Viruses usually don’t start in Wuhan.  Historically, epidemics begin in South China, in the province of Guangdong, Hong Kong, in the center of the country.

At present, the situation is not developing according to the military scenario, but according to the political scenario. The Zhejiang people, immigrants from the Zhejiang province near Shanghai are busy suppressing Komsomol. They were assigned by Xi Jinping and form the core of the Shanghai political group or the new Shanghai clan, and today they are the shock fist of Xi Jinping forces. If they can politically suppress the Komsomol, then perhaps they will be able to place their prime minister. They have a traditional confrontation with competitors from Hubei and this struggle is just unfolding. This is a purely political struggle - and it is just unfolding.

Who is Xi Jinping? This is a politician with strong ties to Russia. His father is Marshal Xi Zhongxun, a field commander extremely loyal to the Soviet Union, but his influence is small. He relies on allied groups. In particular, he provides the mandate to suppress the Zhejiangs, who also trade with the United States and are interested in ousting the Komsomol from positions in Sino-US trade. Zhong Shan, the Minister of Commerce of China, is a Zhejiang and a man loyal to Xi Jinping.

Is Xi ready for radical action?

In the case of a radical turn of events, Xi, of course, would take radical measures. He is the chairman of the Central Military Committee of the PRC and has tremendous support in the army. But we must understand that this would ignite the possibility of a civil war in China, which would create an epicenter of instability on the border with Russia. Northeast China, which was already in the beginning of the 20th century. At present, it is beneficial for Russia to maintain the status quo in China, when China’s leader is loyal to Russia.

For Russia, a civil war in China would be extremely unprofitable. It would be a state of war on two fronts. We were already in this situation and it destroyed the Soviet Union, which spent 10% of the entire defense budget on confrontation. Repetition of the situation is not in the interest of Russia.

The loss of China as an ally would be a big loss for Russia. Russia should provide maximum assistance to China. For example, Trump has already said that he will provide any assistance to China. We must also assist China. In other instances, the Russian Emergencies Ministry helped the Chinese during the earthquake and other natural disasters.


«South China Insight», 05.03.2020

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